Preventing great power conflict
How can we prevent war or a breakdown in cooperation between the great powers?
This profile is tailored towards students studying economics, history, maths, political science and psychology and cognitive science, however we expect there to be valuable open research questions that could be pursued by students in other disciplines.
Why is this a pressing problem?
War has a terrible humanitarian impact through loss of life, violence and indirect impacts such as disruption to food supplies. A war between major powers such as the United States, China or Russia could be particularly deadly, potentially posing a direct threat to humanity’s existence and the potential for a flourishing future, as well as increasing the probability of other existential risks.
The frequency of war has declined over the past 500 years and there has not been a conflict between great powers since WWII. However, expert predictions suggest a worryingly high probability that the ‘Long Peace’ will come to an end this century. This report from Founders Pledge estimates there is a 1 in 3 risk of a war between great powers in the next 100 years and in 2015, a poll of 50 international relations experts estimated a median 5% chance of a nuclear conflict that kills at least 80 million people in the next 20 years. At the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in 2008, academics predicted a median 1% chance of extinction caused by nuclear war in the 21st century.
Current and emerging technology would make a war between major powers particularly catastrophic. For example, the use of nuclear weapons could lead to nuclear winter, or engineered pathogens could be used as biological weapons. Countries might race to develop more powerful AI systems, de-emphasising safety considerations and increasing the chance of an AI system being developed that is dangerously misaligned with human values.
A major war could also leave humanity weaker and more vulnerable to subsequent catastrophes such as natural pandemics, but even without war, increased conflict between major powers would decrease the international coordination needed to address global threats such as pandemics and climate change.
To learn more, watch the talk below or listen to this podcast on the causes of great power conflict.
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Contributors: This profile was last updated 30/12/22. The introduction to this profile is based on a conference talk given by Brian Tse. Thanks to Darius Meissner and Stephen Clare for contributions to this profile. All errors remain our own. Learn more about how we create our profiles.
