Forecasting the long-term future
Can we predict which actions will improve the far future?
This profile is tailored towards students studying economics, philosophy and psychology, however we expect there to be valuable open research questions that could be pursued by students in other disciplines.
Why is this a pressing problem?
The reliability with which we can improve the long-term future depends closely upon how accurately we can predict how future events will unfold. The better we can anticipate the challenges we will face in the future, and how attempts to prepare for these challenges and improve the future will play out long-term, the more likely it is that attempts to improve the world will be effective.
More accurate predictions about the future could support better institutional decision-making across a wide range of domains. For example, a better understanding of the ways in which existential and catastrophic risks could play out in future – for example due to misaligned artificial intelligence or great power war – could allow for more effective policies to be put into place now to mitigate these risks.
However, while the accuracy of short-term forecasting and practices for increasing its accuracy have received significant focus from researchers (for example during the Good Judgement project led by Philip Tetlock), there is currently a lack of research on the accuracy of long-term (≥10yr) forecasts and on the best methods for making these forecasts in different contexts. Consequently, it could be very valuable to better understand the accuracy of our current ability to predict the long-term future and to develop techniques for how this could be improved.
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Contributors: This profile was last updated 20/12/2022. Thanks to Christian Tarsney for helpful feedback on this profile. All errors remain our own. Learn more about how we create our profiles.
