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Start here for an introduction to prioritisation research
This profile is tailored towards students studying economics and sociology, however we expect there to be valuable open research questions that could be pursued by students in other disciplines.
Why is this a pressing problem?
Progress Studies is a fairly new field proposed by Tyler Cowen and Patrick Collison to investigate how successful ‘people, organisations, institutions, policies and cultures’ have previously arisen and develop our understanding of how to increase positive progress in the future.
Many advancements in science and technology have significantly improved human wellbeing over the past few centuries. It could be highly valuable to increase our understanding of the factors that led to periods of particularly high innovation throughout history, and to identify current bottlenecks to positive progress and interventions that could speed progress up. Current incentive structures in science often do not encourage the most productive research strategies or a focus on the questions that are most important from a welfare perspective, so finding ways to improve scientific incentives is one promising avenue. Despite how valuable many innovations have been for humanity, scientific and technological progress can also pose risks, for example by leading to the development of technologies that increase existential risk. Doing research on how policies and institutions can disincentivise risky research and encourage safe alternatives is therefore also important.
Economic growth also appears to be a highly effective way of improving human wellbeing and reducing poverty. It could be useful to investigate the causes of economic growth and further explore its relationship with wellbeing. This 80000 Hours podcast interview with Tyler Cowen explores this in more detail.
Although Progress Studies tends to focus most on understanding scientific and technological progress and economic growth, one of the leading figures in the field, Jason Crawford, advocates here for the importance of taking a big picture perspective that includes moral and social changes when exploring the causes and nature of progress. Because of this broad scope, while this profile focuses on scientific and technological progress and economic growth, our profiles on moral circle expansion and improving institutional decision making are also relevant to progress studies.
Explore existing research
- Agarwal, Ruchir & Patrick Gaule (2020) Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster?, American Economic Review: Insights
- Azoulay, Pierre, Christian Fons-Rosen, & Joshua S. Graff Zivin (2019) Does Science Advance One Funeral at a Time?, American Economic Review
- Bloom, Nicholas, et al. (2020) Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?, American Economic Review
- Clancy, Matthew, et al. (2020) The Roots of Agricultural Innovation: Patent Evidence of Knowledge Spillovers, in Economics of Research and Innovation in Agriculture, National Bureau of Economic Research
- Cockburn, Iain M., et al. (2016) Patents and the Global Diffusion of New Drugs, American Economic Review
- Evans, Alice (2019) How Cities Erode Gender Inequality: A New Theory and Evidence from Cambodia, Gender and Society
- Hill, Ryan & Carolyn Stein (2022) Race to the Bottom: Competition and Quality in Science
- Kondo, Jiro, Danielle Li, & Dimitris Papanikolaou (2021) Trust, Collaboration, and Economic Growth, Management Science
- Williams, Heidi (2017) How Do Patents Affect Research Investments?, Annual Review of Economics
It might also be useful to check Winners of Emergent Ventures grant (progress studies tranche) to find other researchers working on this research direction.
- The Institute for Progress is a think tank focused on policy research to speed up scientific, technological and industrial progress.
- The Roots of Progress is a research organisation exploring the value and causes of progress.
- The Science for Progress Initiative at JPAL is focused on researching the most effective methods of funding and supporting scientific research.
- The Center for Open Science is an organisation working to increase the openness, integrity and reproducibility of research.
- New Science is a non-profit researching what scientific infrastructure and norms most support progress.
See this list of books from The Roots of Progress.
Find a thesis topic
If you’re interested in working on this research direction, below are some ideas on what would be valuable to explore further. If you want help refining your research ideas, apply for our coaching!
One potentially promising avenue is to study how to organise institutions of science to increase their productivity. A new discipline named Science of Science sets out to do this in a quantitative, interdisciplinary manner. Some further related ideas can also be found in this series of posts at Nintil. Some people also argue for more structural diversification of scientific institutions and are putting together proposals of how new types of research organisations could be organised (for example, see Samuel Arbesman’s list and José Luis Ricón’s list).
Inefficient practices and technology often persist despite the availability of better alternatives. For example, Bloom et al. (2013) show that providing consulting on management practices to randomly chosen Indian textile firms increased their productivity by 17%. Further research could address why firms do not adopt more productive practices (although this area might be less neglected, see e.g., Comin and Mestieri 2014 for a review of literature on technology diffusion).
Finally, we need to better understand how (and to what extend) we can shape the direction of technological progress to avoid development of harmful technologies. Research in this area could build on the literature on directed technical change, which has been studied both theoretically (Acemoglu 2002, Acemoglu et al. 2012, Popp et al. 2010) and empirically (Popp 2002, Hanlon 2015, Aghion et al. 2016) and the impact of various economic factors such as prices of input on the evolution of technology. The problem of potential adverse side effects or even existential risk caused by new technologies has received little to no attention so far. Thus, it appears to be a promising subject to pursue.
Aside from technological progress, which generally gives us more power and more choices, one could also focus on moral and epistemic progress, which improves our ability to make good choices. An example of such research could be the debate on moral convergence towards liberalism (e.g. Cofnas, 2019) and changes via generational replacement.
One potentially promising avenue is to study how to organise institutions of science to increase productivity. The new discipline named Science of Science sets out to do this in a quantitative, interdisciplinary manner. Some further related ideas can also be found in this series of posts at Nintil. Some people also argue for more structural diversification of scientific institutions and are putting together proposals for how new types of research organisations could be structured (for example, see Samuel Arbesman’s list and José Luis Ricón’s list).
Inefficient practices and technology often persist despite the availability of better alternatives. For example, Bloom et al. (2013) show that providing consulting on management practices to randomly chosen Indian textile firms increased their productivity by 17%. Further research could address why firms do not adopt more productive practices (although this area might be less neglected, see e.g., Comin and Mestieri 2014 for a review of literature on technology diffusion).
Finally, we need to better understand how (and to what extent) we can shape the direction of technological progress to avoid development of harmful technologies. Research in this area could build on the literature on directed technical change, which includes both theoretical (Acemoglu 2002, Acemoglu et al. 2012, Popp et al. 2010) and empirical (Popp 2002, Hanlon 2015, Aghion et al. 2016) studies on the impact of various economic factors (such as prices of input) on the evolution of technology. The problem of potential adverse side effects or even existential risks being caused by new technologies has received little to no attention so far. Thus, it appears to be a promising subject to pursue.
Aside from technological progress, which generally gives us more power and more choices, one could also focus on moral and epistemic progress, which improves our ability to make good choices. An example of such research could be debate on moral convergence towards liberalism (e.g. Cofnas, 2019) and changes via generational replacement.
Further resources
Further reading
- Works in Progress is an online magazine that aims to promote underrated ideas to improve the world.
- For many links to further reading and resources related to this profile see A List of Progress Studies Reading Lists and Links to resources related to progress studies by Patrick Collison.
- High-leverage ways to speed up economic growth and Science policy and infrastructure from 80,000 Hours offer introductions to two of the areas covered by this profile.
- The meta science and scientific progress tags on the EA Forum are additional sources of further reading.
- Posts you could start with reading on improving incentives in science are What would better science look like? and Science policy as a possible EA cause area: problems and solutions.
Online courses
- See this online course on the economics of innovation by Kevin Bryan and Heidi Williams
- The Economics of Ideas, Science and Innovation is another online course; you could sign up for the next time the course runs or read through the syllabus independently.
Apply for our coaching and we can connect you directly with researchers and potentially mentors who can help you refine your research ideas.
Online locations for discussing this research direction include the Progress Forum, the Progress Studies Slack and others listed here on the Roots of Progress site. You can also apply to join our community if you’re interested in connecting with other students interested in this research direction.
Apply for our database of potential supervisors if you’re looking for formal supervision and take a look at our advice on finding a great supervisor for further ideas.
Our funding database can help you find potential sources of funding if you’re a PhD student interested in this research direction.
- Sign up for our newsletter to hear about opportunities such as funding, internships and research roles.
- Blogs you can subscribe to include New Things Under the Sun (a living literature review on social science research about innovation), The Roots of Progress, Age of Invention and Kris Gulati’s blog.
If you’re interested in exploring how institutions could be improved, read our profile on improving institutional decision-making. If you’re interested in exploring moral progress, see our profile on moral circle expansion.
Our profiles on preventing the release of dangerous pathogens and the governance of artificial intelligence may both be relevant if you’re interested in differential technological development.
Understanding how some progress occurs might require looking at long-term trends throughout human history; see our profile on the most important historical trends to learn more.
Contributors
This profile was last updated 9/01/2023. Thanks to Martin Kosik and David Janku for writing this profile. Thanks to Kris Gulati for helpful feedback. All errors remain our own.
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AI sentience, moral status and rights
How should the possibility of AI sentience guide the development of AI and related institutions and norms?
Alternative proteins research and development
The consumption of animal products causes suffering to billions of animals each year. Alternatives could shift consumer demand away from animal products.
Anti-ageing research
Aging is a major risk factor for many diseases that medical interventions try to prevent. Can we target aging as an underlying cause of disease?
Antimicrobial resistance
Antimicrobial resistance already kills tens of thousands each year, and could kill millions without innovation. What are the best strategies to prevent it?
Applied mental health research
It’s estimated that around 10% of the population suffers from diagnosable mental health conditions, with most of them not receiving treatment.
Attitudes to existential risk and longtermism
To increase the chance of our species having a flourishing future, it’s helpful to understand how we feel and reason about the future of humanity
Behavioural and attitudinal change in animal products consumption
How do attitudes towards animals affect animal product consumption and what interventions are effective in decreasing it?
Black soldier fly sentience and welfare
Black soldier fly may be farmed on a huge scale in the coming decades. To decrease their potential suffering, we need to understand more about their welfare and capacity for sentience.
Cause specific mortality in wild animals
Understanding the causes of wild animal mortality can help us build a picture of the current state of welfare in nature and how we can improve it.
Charitable donations decision-making research
Charitable donations can do a lot of good, but donors rarely prioritise their impact. How can we encourage more effective philanthropy?
Civilisation collapses
Studying past civilisational collapses may help us predict and safeguard against future collapse and increase the chance of recovery.
Consumer research related to alternative proteins
Demand for animal products is increasing but so is the availability of alternatives. How can consumers be encouraged to explore alternative proteins?
Detection and identification of dangerous pathogens
Using metagenomic surveillance and broad-spectrum diagnostics to detect dangerous pathogens.
Developing solutions to climate change
Climate change is already causing suffering on a huge scale, and may increasingly contribute to many different crises in future. Although many resources are already dedicated to this area, there are gaps that further research is needed to fill.
Farmed animal welfare
Animal agriculture causes suffering to billions of animals each year. How can we improve welfare standards as much as possible?
Forecasting the long-term future
To reliably improve the longterm future, we must address the challenge of predicting the longterm impact of our actions
Global health and wellbeing
In 2021 about 9% of the global population was living in extreme poverty. How can we increase living standards and wellbeing in low- and lower-middle-income countries?
Global priorities research
There are many neglected, foundational uncertainties about what it means to improve the world and what actions we should take to do so
Governance of artificial intelligence
AI could radically transform the world, for better or worse. How can AI governance mitigate the risks and increase the chance it contributes to humanity's flourishing?
Great power coordination
How can we coordinate action between the Great Powers to address existential and global catastrophic risks?
Historical persistence and contingency
Improving predictions of the extent to which important features of the world today will persist into the future, and how contingent the future is on the actions we take in the present, could help inform attempts to create long-lasting positive change.
Human-aligned artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will likely become an increasingly powerful force shaping humanity’s future, so research to align it with human values is vital.
Improving aquatic animal welfare
How can we help the hundreds of billions of aquatic animals that are raised and killed for human consumption every year?
Improving health and wellbeing metrics
Current health and wellbeing metrics have many shortcomings, leading to misallocation of resources. Developing the 'WELBY' could help.
Improving institutional decision-making
Large institutions have vast resources and capacity to help solve global problems. How can we improve their decision-making processes?
Improving pandemic governance
Pandemics pose a humanitarian crisis that could even threaten humanity’s future. How can governments prepare for future pandemics?
Improving the measurement of animal welfare
Wild animals make up the vast majority of sentient beings, but their welfare is highly neglected. One promising approach to understanding their quality of life is comparing rate of biological aging in different populations.
Improving voting methods
Learning how voting systems have been changed in the past to understand how to improve voting systems used today
Longtermism
Is improving the far future one of the key moral priorities of our time? If it is, how should this influence our actions?
Medical interventions against dangerous pathogens
To address future pandemics, we need medical interventions against pathogens to be faster to produce, effective against a broad range of threats, and cheaper and easier to produce at scale.
Moral circle expansion
How can we expand humanity's moral circle to create a more compassionate future?
Moral weight research
Foundational research exploring animals’ experiences and moral standing could help prioritize animal welfare interventions
Most important historical trends
A better understanding of historical trends and what they tell us about humanity's trajectory could inform efforts to improve and prepare for the future
Non-pharmaceutical pandemic interventions
How does the transmission of dangerous pathogens occur and how can innovation in areas such as testing, PPE, distancing and contact tracing reduce transmission?
Preventing great power conflict
Great power war could pose an existential risk, while a breakdown in cooperation could undermine vital coordination on many global problems. How can we reduce the risk of conflict?
Preventing the release of dangerous pathogens
How can we reduce the likelihood of intentional or accidental release of dangerous pathogens?
Progress studies
Advances in science, technology, institutions and culture have caused huge improvements in standards of living. How can we increase the rate of progress?
Nuclear war prevention and recovery
Could nuclear winter pose an existential threat to humanity's future and in what scenarios? How can we decrease the risk of nuclear war and increase civilisational resilience?
Reducing physical pain
Hundreds of millions of people live with chronic pain and other intensely painful conditions. What are the most urgent conditions where progress could be made?
Reducing risks from malevolent actors
How can individuals with particularly dangerous personality traits be prevented from gaining power?
Resilient foods research
How would we feed everyone in the event of a global catastrophe, such as the sun being blocked during a nuclear winter or significant disruption to electricity or industry?
Risks from volcanic eruptions
Volcanic eruptions could lead to catastrophe by causing food shortages and disruption to vital global systems. How can we monitor and mitigate the risks?
Space governance
Outer space is an increasingly valuable resource and may one day be permanently settled. How can its use be safe, sustainable and contribute to a flourishing future?
Understanding the impact of social movements
Social movements can significantly improve the world. What factors determine the change a social movement achieves?
Wildlife fertility control research
Many wild animals suffer due to resource competition. Population management of some species via contraception could increase welfare and survival.
See here for a visual map of all our research directions
