Interested in working on this research direction? Apply for our coaching
Start here for an introduction to existential risk research. Read more
This profile is tailored towards students studying engineering and biological sciences, however we expect there to be valuable open research questions that could be pursued by students in other disciplines.
Why is this a pressing problem?
Pandemics could pose an increasing threat to humanity’s flourishing in the future. ‘Spillover events’ where pathogens jump from animals to humans are increasing due to factors like habitat destruction and intensive farming; technological advances are increasing the number of people who can synthesise dangerous pathogens; and an increasing number of laboratories are working with pathogens that could cause pandemics if accidentally released. Early detection to limit the spread and allow countermeasures to be taken is key to limiting the harm when a pathogen with pandemic potential next emerges.
This is where biosurveillance – ‘the detection and monitoring of biological agents to prevent biological threats’ – is important. Metagenomic monitoring is a particularly promising approach because it’s pathogen agnostic; it allows the detection of all microorganisms in a sample without prior knowledge of their identities, meaning novel pathogens can be detected. There are three kinds of monitoring this can involve: environmental surveillance, which involves testing samples from the built environment, such as from wastewater or air filters that aggregate over many people; sentinel surveillance, which involves collecting samples from a pool of the population, potentially those at particularly high risk of exposure to pathogens; and clinical metagenomics, which involves sequencing samples from patients in clinics and hospitals.
In the video below, Dr Pardis Sabeti and Dr Christian Happi discuss their proposed metagenomic early warning system for detecting viral threats.
Explore existing research
- Ackerman, Cheri M., et al. (2020) Massively Multiplexed Nucleic Acid Detection with Cas13, Nature
- Gardy, Jennifer L. & Nicholas J. Loman (2017) Towards a Genomics-Informed, Real-Time, Global Pathogen Surveillance System, Nature Reviews Genetics
- Nieuwenhuijse, David F., et al. (2020) Setting a Baseline for Global Urban Virome Surveillance in Sewage, Scientific Reports
- Nucleic Acid Observatory Consortium (2021) A Global Nucleic Acid Observatory for Biodefense and Planetary Health
- The Apollo Program for Biodefense: Winning the Race Against Biological Threats (2021) Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
Find a thesis topic
If you’re interested in working on this research direction, below are some ideas on what would be valuable to explore further. If you want help refining your research ideas, apply for our coaching!
This report from The Apollo Program for Biodefense Technology Priorities highlights the following as areas for further research:
- “To advance sequencing, we must increase investments in novel sequencing modalities, prioritizing methods enabling miniaturization and decreases in reagents or even reagent-free sequencing. Coupled with research and development focused on microfluidics and on-chip sample preparation, we can realize the vision of truly hand-held, affordable, easily operated sequencers.” – (The Apollo Program for Biodefense Technology Priorities)
- “While the ability to detect almost any known pathogen is a tremendous advantage, for wide deployment…[massively multiplexed assays] will need to become cheaper, more robust, simpler to operate, and faster. They must also achieve high sensitivity and specificity and ultimately be interpretable to clinicians…We should prioritize techniques enabling the tests to move out of centralized laboratories, and especially those that can operate in resource- constrained settings. The detection of viral pathogens for any host, including agricultural plants and animals, rapidly and with confidence would provide a capability to complement metagenomic sequencing and pathogen-specific point-of-person diagnostics. (The Apollo Program for Biodefense Technology Priorities)
Metagenomic sequencing isn’t yet a frontline diagnostic, in part due to prohibitive cost. Further research is needed to identify the key bottlenecks involved and make technological advancements to bring costs down. The author of Biosecurity needs engineers and materials scientists writes, “implementing metagenomic biomonitoring for early detection of outbreaks is going to need significant hardware advances in many domains, including for reliable and effective environmental sampling, easy point-of-care clinical sampling, automated sample processing, and sequencing technology.”
This report from The Apollo Program for Biodefense Technology Priorities highlights the following as necessary advancements to improve sequencing technology: “we must increase investments in novel sequencing modalities, prioritizing methods enabling miniaturization and decreases in reagents or even reagent- free sequencing. Coupled with research and development focused on microfluidics and on-chip sample preparation, we can realize the vision of truly hand-held, affordable, easily operated sequencers.” See SmidgION – a miniaturised DNA sequencer under development – for an example of research in this area.
Another area where further research is needed is in developing non-invasive and minimally invasive devices that can detect infection. The Apollo Program for Biodefense Technology Priorities report states, ‘We are on the verge of the ability to detect whether the body is currently infected with any pathogen…through the interrogation of host biomarkers. Increasingly, we can also detect infection indicators non-invasively through advances in wearables and volatolomics…non-invasive and minimally-invasive detection techniques could provide avenues to monitor high-risk, high-concern, and sentinel populations for infections, without disrupting daily life.’ See this podcast on a wearable device to monitor COVID symptoms.
Further resources
To learn more about the general case for working on biosecurity and global catastrophic biological risks, see:
- Why experts are terrified of a human-made pandemic — and what we can do to stop it – Vox
- A Biosecurity and Biorisk Reading+ List – EA Forum
- Preventing catastrophic pandemics – 80,000 Hours
- This talk on Biosecurity as an EA cause area
Some podcasts relevant to this research direction include:
- Pardis Sabeti on the Sentinel system for detecting and stopping pandemics – 80,000 Hours
- Fin Moorhouse & Luca Righetti (2022) Ajay Karpur on metagenomic sequencing, Hear This Idea, June 13.
- Andy Weber on rendering bioweapons obsolete & ending the new nuclear arms race – 80000 Hours
Register your interest for the Biosecurity Fundamentals course, a course designed to help people develop the knowledge, community and network needed to pursue a high-impact career in biosecurity.
You could register interest for BlueDot Impact’s introductory course on the fundamentals of biosecurity. The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute suggests fellowships and other next steps here.
Apply for our coaching and we can connect you directly with researchers and potentially mentors who can help you refine your research ideas. You can also apply to join our community if you’re interested in connecting with other students specifically.
Apply for our database of potential supervisors if you’re looking for formal supervision and take a look at our advice on finding a great supervisor for further ideas.
Our funding database can help you find potential sources of funding if you’re a PhD student interested in this research direction.
Sign up for our newsletter to hear about opportunities such as funding, internships and research roles.
Explore our other profiles relating to biosecurity and pandemic preparedness:
Contributors
This profile was last updated 5/12/2022. Thanks to Jeff Kaufman, Mike McLaren, Vivian Belenky for helpful feedback. All errors remain our own.
Interested in this direction? Apply for our coaching
Explore all our recommended research directions
Search for profiles that are tailored specifically to your degree discipline using the menu below.
If you are interested in a profile that isn’t listed under your discipline, we still encourage you to explore it if you think you could make progress in this direction. You can also explore all our recommended research directions organised by theme.
- All
- Agricultural science
- Basic medicine
- Biological Sciences
- Business
- Chemical sciences
- Computer and information sciences
- Earth and environmental sciences
- Economics
- Engineering
- Health sciences
- History
- Law
- Maths
- Media and communications
- Philosophy and ethics
- Physical sciences
- Political science
- Psychology and cognitive sciences
- Sociology
AI sentience, moral status and rights
How should the possibility of AI sentience guide the development of AI and related institutions and norms?
Alternative proteins research and development
The consumption of animal products causes suffering to billions of animals each year. Alternatives could shift consumer demand away from animal products.
Anti-ageing research
Aging is a major risk factor for many diseases that medical interventions try to prevent. Can we target aging as an underlying cause of disease?
Antimicrobial resistance
Antimicrobial resistance already kills tens of thousands each year, and could kill millions without innovation. What are the best strategies to prevent it?
Applied mental health research
It’s estimated that around 10% of the population suffers from diagnosable mental health conditions, with most of them not receiving treatment.
Attitudes to existential risk and longtermism
To increase the chance of our species having a flourishing future, it’s helpful to understand how we feel and reason about the future of humanity
Behavioural and attitudinal change in animal products consumption
How do attitudes towards animals affect animal product consumption and what interventions are effective in decreasing it?
Black soldier fly sentience and welfare
Black soldier fly may be farmed on a huge scale in the coming decades. To decrease their potential suffering, we need to understand more about their welfare and capacity for sentience.
Cause specific mortality in wild animals
Understanding the causes of wild animal mortality can help us build a picture of the current state of welfare in nature and how we can improve it.
Charitable donations decision-making research
Charitable donations can do a lot of good, but donors rarely prioritise their impact. How can we encourage more effective philanthropy?
Civilisation collapses
Studying past civilisational collapses may help us predict and safeguard against future collapse and increase the chance of recovery.
Consumer research related to alternative proteins
Demand for animal products is increasing but so is the availability of alternatives. How can consumers be encouraged to explore alternative proteins?
Detection and identification of dangerous pathogens
Using metagenomic surveillance and broad-spectrum diagnostics to detect dangerous pathogens.
Developing solutions to climate change
Climate change is already causing suffering on a huge scale, and may increasingly contribute to many different crises in future. Although many resources are already dedicated to this area, there are gaps that further research is needed to fill.
Farmed animal welfare
Animal agriculture causes suffering to billions of animals each year. How can we improve welfare standards as much as possible?
Forecasting the long-term future
To reliably improve the longterm future, we must address the challenge of predicting the longterm impact of our actions
Global health and wellbeing
In 2021 about 9% of the global population was living in extreme poverty. How can we increase living standards and wellbeing in low- and lower-middle-income countries?
Global priorities research
There are many neglected, foundational uncertainties about what it means to improve the world and what actions we should take to do so
Governance of artificial intelligence
AI could radically transform the world, for better or worse. How can AI governance mitigate the risks and increase the chance it contributes to humanity's flourishing?
Great power coordination
How can we coordinate action between the Great Powers to address existential and global catastrophic risks?
Historical persistence and contingency
Improving predictions of the extent to which important features of the world today will persist into the future, and how contingent the future is on the actions we take in the present, could help inform attempts to create long-lasting positive change.
Human-aligned artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will likely become an increasingly powerful force shaping humanity’s future, so research to align it with human values is vital.
Improving aquatic animal welfare
How can we help the hundreds of billions of aquatic animals that are raised and killed for human consumption every year?
Improving health and wellbeing metrics
Current health and wellbeing metrics have many shortcomings, leading to misallocation of resources. Developing the 'WELBY' could help.
Improving institutional decision-making
Large institutions have vast resources and capacity to help solve global problems. How can we improve their decision-making processes?
Improving pandemic governance
Pandemics pose a humanitarian crisis that could even threaten humanity’s future. How can governments prepare for future pandemics?
Improving the measurement of animal welfare
Wild animals make up the vast majority of sentient beings, but their welfare is highly neglected. One promising approach to understanding their quality of life is comparing rate of biological aging in different populations.
Improving voting methods
Learning how voting systems have been changed in the past to understand how to improve voting systems used today
Longtermism
Is improving the far future one of the key moral priorities of our time? If it is, how should this influence our actions?
Medical interventions against dangerous pathogens
To address future pandemics, we need medical interventions against pathogens to be faster to produce, effective against a broad range of threats, and cheaper and easier to produce at scale.
Moral circle expansion
How can we expand humanity's moral circle to create a more compassionate future?
Moral weight research
Foundational research exploring animals’ experiences and moral standing could help prioritize animal welfare interventions
Most important historical trends
A better understanding of historical trends and what they tell us about humanity's trajectory could inform efforts to improve and prepare for the future
Non-pharmaceutical pandemic interventions
How does the transmission of dangerous pathogens occur and how can innovation in areas such as testing, PPE, distancing and contact tracing reduce transmission?
Preventing great power conflict
Great power war could pose an existential risk, while a breakdown in cooperation could undermine vital coordination on many global problems. How can we reduce the risk of conflict?
Preventing the release of dangerous pathogens
How can we reduce the likelihood of intentional or accidental release of dangerous pathogens?
Progress studies
Advances in science, technology, institutions and culture have caused huge improvements in standards of living. How can we increase the rate of progress?
Nuclear war prevention and recovery
Could nuclear winter pose an existential threat to humanity's future and in what scenarios? How can we decrease the risk of nuclear war and increase civilisational resilience?
Reducing physical pain
Hundreds of millions of people live with chronic pain and other intensely painful conditions. What are the most urgent conditions where progress could be made?
Reducing risks from malevolent actors
How can individuals with particularly dangerous personality traits be prevented from gaining power?
Resilient foods research
How would we feed everyone in the event of a global catastrophe, such as the sun being blocked during a nuclear winter or significant disruption to electricity or industry?
Risks from volcanic eruptions
Volcanic eruptions could lead to catastrophe by causing food shortages and disruption to vital global systems. How can we monitor and mitigate the risks?
Space governance
Outer space is an increasingly valuable resource and may one day be permanently settled. How can its use be safe, sustainable and contribute to a flourishing future?
Understanding the impact of social movements
Social movements can significantly improve the world. What factors determine the change a social movement achieves?
Wildlife fertility control research
Many wild animals suffer due to resource competition. Population management of some species via contraception could increase welfare and survival.
See here for a visual map of all our research directions
