Historical persistence and contingency
When do important features of the world persist and how contingent is the course of history?
This profile is tailored towards students studying economics, history and sociology, however we expect there to be valuable open research questions that could be pursued by students in other disciplines.
Why is this a pressing problem?
To what extent can we exert influence on the future and how long does our influence last? Could some features of the world (good or bad) even become ‘locked-in’ and inflexible to change, and in what circumstances could this happen?
There are various features of the world that seem particularly significant when trying to understand how well the world is going in the present and how the future might unfold. These include factors such as ‘democratic or authoritarian norms and behaviours, concern for human rights, concern for animal welfare, and norms conducive to scientific progress or free markets,’ and development indicators such as standards of living, technological capabilities and subjective wellbeing.
Looking at how these features have evolved throughout history and in what circumstances they have changed or persisted could help us better predict the future. The persistence of these features should also inform our understanding of the value of trying to influence them as a means of improving the world, because if a feature tends to persist for many generations, then positively influencing it is a way of improving not only present but also future lives.
An understanding of the contingency of these features – in other words, ‘how much of [a] feature’s value can be attributed to a particular agent’s decision at a particular point in time’– is also important when assessing the expected value of attempts to improve the future. For example, the values that future generations will hold may be highly important and persist for a long time, but it’s also important to understand whether we can have a significant effect on their development at this point in time.
One way in which future technological advancements may have a major impact on global wellbeing is by causing features of the world to become ‘locked in’ and inflexible to change. For example, increasingly powerful surveillance technologies could be used to uphold a totalitarian regime for far longer than it would otherwise survive. Exploring how technology could change the future is another way exploring the concept of cultural persistence could be useful. See the talk below by Ben Garfinkel, which includes a discussion of how future surveillance technologies could be used in this way.
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Contributors: This profile was last updated 7/01/22. Thanks to Toby Shevlane for first creating this profile. Thanks to Adam Bales and Jaime Sevilla for helpful feedback. All errors remain our own. Learn more about how we create our profiles.
