There are various features of the world that seem particularly significant when trying to understand how well the world is going in the present and how the future might unfold. These include factors such as ‘democratic or authoritarian norms and behaviours, concern for human rights, concern for animal welfare, and norms conducive to scientific progress or free markets,’ and development indicators such as standards of living, technological capabilities and subjective wellbeing.

Looking at how these features have evolved throughout history and when they have changed or persisted could help us better predict the future. The persistence of these features can also inform our understanding of the value of trying to influence them as a means of improving the world, because if a feature tends to persist for many generations, then positively influencing it is a way of improving not only lives today but also many future lives.

An understanding of the contingency of these features – in other words, ‘how much of [a] feature’s value can be attributed to a particular agent’s decision at a particular point in time’– is also important when assessing the expected value of attempts to improve the future. For example, the values that future generations will hold may be highly important and persist for a long time, but it’s also important to understand whether we can have a significant effect on their development through our actions today.

On way in which future technological advancements may have a major impact on global wellbeing is by causing important features of the world to become ‘locked in’ and inflexible to change. For example, increasingly powerful surveillance technologies could be used to uphold a totalitarian regime for far longer than it would otherwise survive. Understanding more about how technology could change the future is another way that exploring cultural persistence could be useful. The talk below by Ben Garfinkel includes a discussion of how future surveillance technologies could be used in this way.