Risks from volcanic eruptions
Modeling and preventing scenarios in which volcanic eruptions could cause global catastrophe

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This profile is tailored towards students studying earth and environmental sciences, engineering and physics, however we expect there to be valuable open research questions that could be pursued by students in other disciplines.

Why is this a pressing problem?

There are a number of ways in which volcanic eruptions could pose an existential or global catastrophic risk to humanity. Supervolcanic eruptions, which reach a magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index, could bring about particularly catastrophic volcanic winters – periods of global cooling caused sulfuric acid and ash from the eruption entering the Earth’s atmosphere. The resulting change in climate could have wide-reaching and devastating effects on global food production.

However, very large scale eruptions are not the only eruptions that could cause a global catastrophe. Smaller volcanic eruptions have contributed to widespread crop failures throughout history. The 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru precipitated a series of record cold winters worldwide and has been linked to the Russian famine of 1601 – 1603 in which it is thought about 30% of the Russian population died. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 is another example, after which global cooling caused crop failures across Europe in the ‘year without a summer.’

More immediate damage caused by mud flows, tsunamis and debris could also be extremely disruptive. In this paper the researchers identify ‘pinch points;’ areas where a lower magnitude volcanic eruption could disable critical systems such as trade and transport networks, potentially causing collapse of financial markets or food shortages. These could in addition increase the risk of further catastrophes, for example by contributing to political turmoil.

For more information on volcanic eruptions and existential risks, read ‘The Precipice’ by Dr. Toby Ord, these posts from Mike Cassidy and Lara Mani (Post 1, Post 2), and the paper cited above, from which many of the suggestions for further research and references below are drawn.

In the lecture below, geologist Stephen Sparks explores the likelihood of a global catastrophe being caused by volcanic eruption.

 

Explore existing research

For research on volcanic winters and magnitudes of global cooling, see:

For estimates on the existential threat posed by the Toba eruption, see:

Find a thesis topic

If you’re interested in working on this research direction, below are some ideas on what would be valuable to explore further. If you want help refining your research ideas, apply for our coaching!

More research is required to improve our collective understanding of the behaviour and effects of volcanic eruptions, so that they can be prevented or better prepared for. This could involve using some of the risk modelling and management lessons learnt from assessing risks from asteroids and comets.

Valuable questions to explore could include:

  • Where have large magnitude volcanic eruptions occurred in the past?
  • How can we refine our estimates of the frequency of such large eruptions?
  • Which areas of the world would be the most affected by even modest eruptions (in terms of global cascading impacts), and how can these effects be best modelled?
  • What are the climatic effects of large magnitude eruptions, how are these effects distributed across the world, and how does this affect water, food and other resources?
  • What methods can be deployed to prevent or mitigate the effects of volcanic eruptions?

     

You could also explore suggestions in this paper for how the impact of volcanic eruptions could be mitigated.

You could explore some of the research directions suggested in this post, such as:

  • Investigating the role of pseudo-satellites (HALE UAVs) to help provide imagery and monitor most dangerous volcanoes when they start showing activity. These will also be critical post eruption to understand if the volcano is still erupting, how big the eruption is, the damage surveillance, and a source of internet and communications.
  • Developing methods for minimising stratospheric aerosols, for example via coagulation and fallout of sun blocking sulfate aerosols using aircraft, balloons and UAVs.
  • Exploring how possible, effective and ethical it is to attempt to minimise the explosivity of eruptions before they erupt by fracking, drilling and other means.

You could also explore the suggestions in this paper for how the impact of volcanic eruptions could be mitigated.

You could explore some of the research directions suggested in this post, such as:

  • Investigating the role of pseudo-satellites (HALE UAVs) to help provide imagery and monitor most dangerous volcanoes when they start showing activity. These will also be critical post eruption to understand if the volcano is still erupting, how big the eruption is, the damage surveillance, and a source of internet and communications.
  • Developing methods for minimising stratospheric aerosols, for example via coagulation and fallout of sun blocking sulfate aerosols using aircraft, balloons and UAVs.
  • Exploring how possible, effective and ethical it is to attempt to minimise the explosivity of eruptions before they erupt by fracking, drilling and other means.

You could also explore the suggestions in this paper for how the impact of volcanic eruptions could be mitigated.




Further resources

See this summary of the 2022 paper Huge Volcanic Eruptions: Time to Prepare for more ideas of research questions.

Seth Baum, the director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, has written this advice for students who want to study global catastrophic risks.

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If you’re interested in doing research to reduce existential and global catastrophic risks, explore our other research direction profiles here.

Contributors

This profile was last significantly updated 28/03/2022. Thanks to Vaneesha Jain for writing this profile and to Mike Cassidy for reviewing it. All mistakes remain our own. Learn more about how we create our profiles.

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