Why work on reducing existential and catastrophic risks?
Existential and global catastrophic risk research focuses on understanding and mitigating the likelihood of events that could damage well-being on a global scale, potentially even causing the extinction of humanity or a drastic and terminal curbing of its potential.
Prioritising reducing these risks may sometimes be informed by an ethical stance known as longtermism. Longtermism states that because the likely number of our descendents and the potential for their flourishing in the aeons to come is so astronomically high, we must strongly prioritise not squandering it.
Until recently, existential threats have mainly come from the natural world – supervolcanoes, asteroids, or naturally-occuring pandemics. These are still comparatively very impactful areas to research.
Currently, the greatest threats are likely ones we might bring about ourselves – ‘anthropogenic’ risks. Nuclear war and an ensuing nuclear winter or particularly severe climate change scenarios are some of the most salient examples, and excellent areas for research. However it seems the very greatest threats likely come from engineered pandemics and the possibility of advanced artificial intelligence being developed which is misaligned with human values. Given the huge commercial incentives on the development of the relevant technologies, the impossibility of perfect global regulation, and their potential necessity in solving other major problems, hoping to just prevent all progress in these fields seems unrealistic. We need our best minds at the table shaping their trajectory, which as it stands is a pretty grim one. In Toby Ord’s 2020 analysis, these two risks sharply increased the aggregated risk that we suffer an existential or catastrophic event in the next century to a sobering 1 in 6.
So some of our greatest threats are these nascent and quickly-developing technologies about which there is still so much to learn – clearly, this places huge importance on thoughtful research. And this may in fact be the most significant time to be doing it. Being new, there are many technical questions to resolve regarding these technologies, and the social norms and policy surrounding them are still early-stage and malleable.
Next steps
Here are some steps that can help you do research in this area.
Explore our research direction profiles below this introduction for some deeper dives into how research could help reduce the likelihood of existential and catastrophic risks.
- This syllabus on existential risk from Toby Ord contains many options for further reading.
- If you’re interested in learning more about existential risk, you could also apply for these introductory programmes run by the Cambridge Existential Risk Initiative.
Some research agendas that include research questions relevant to tackling a broad range of existential and catastrophic risks include:
- This research agenda from the Legal Priorities Project.
- 80,000 Hours’ list of longtermist policy ideas.
- The research priorities from the Forethought Foundation.
Explore our research direction profiles below for many more questions.
Apply for our coaching for personalised guidance on getting started in this area and to be connected with researchers who can help you refine your ideas.
You can also join our community if you’re interested in connecting with other students specifically.
See our funding database for some potential sources of funding in this area.
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Contributors
This introduction was last updated 21/01/2023. Thanks to Will Fenning for originally writing this introduction.
Explore recommended research directions in this category
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Antimicrobial resistance
Antimicrobial resistance already kills tens of thousands each year, and could kill millions without innovation. What are the best strategies to prevent it?
Civilisation collapses
Studying past civilisational collapses may help us predict and safeguard against future collapse and increase the chance of recovery.
Detection and identification of dangerous pathogens
Using metagenomic surveillance and broad-spectrum diagnostics to detect dangerous pathogens.
Exploring extreme climate change scenarios
Climate change is already a humanitarian crisis, but we don't know much about the most extreme scenarios. Could these pose an existential risk to humanity?
Governance of artificial intelligence
AI could radically transform the world, for better or worse. How can AI governance mitigate the risks and increase the chance it contributes to humanity's flourishing?
Human-aligned artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will likely become an increasingly powerful force shaping humanity’s future, so research to align it with human values is vital.
Non-pharmaceutical pandemic interventions
How does the transmission of dangerous pathogens occur and how can innovation in areas such as testing, PPE, distancing and contact tracing reduce transmission?
Pandemic Preparedness
Pandemics pose a humanitarian crisis that could even threaten humanity’s future. How can governments prepare for future pandemics?
Preventing great power conflict
Great power war could pose an existential risk, while a breakdown in cooperation could undermine vital coordination on many global problems. How can we reduce the risk of conflict?
Preventing release of dangerous pathogens
How can we reduce the likelihood of intentional or accidental release of dangerous pathogens?
Resilient foods research
How would we feed everyone in the event of a global catastrophe, such as the sun being blocked during a nuclear winter or significant disruption to electricity or industry?
Risks from volcanic eruptions
Volcanic eruptions could lead to catastrophe by causing food shortages and disruption to vital global systems. How can we monitor and mitigate the risks?
Specific Nuclear Winter Scenarios
How severe would nuclear winter, resulting from nuclear war, be in different scenarios? Could nuclear winter pose an existential threat to humanity's future?
The nature and universality of human values
What are the values that artificial intelligence should preserve?
The psychology of existential risk and longtermism
To increase the chance of our species having a flourishing future, it’s helpful to understand how we feel and reason about the future of humanity
See here for a visual map of all our research directions
